Denzity Insights: Japan Residential & Hotels [Expert’s Advice] with Perry Tan


Japan Residential & Hotels [Expert’s Advice] with Perry Tan

In this episode, we take a look at Japanese hospitality real estate and why they may be of interest to investors. Japan is known worldwide as a top tourist destination, and as such it has a booming hospitality industry with offerings ranging from chain-hotels to small room Airbnbs. Today we have Perry Tan to discuss the ins-and-outs of investing in this large market, and how it can appeal to any investor.

Key Discussions

▶  Japanese Residential Market [Expert updates]

▶  Mitigating Risk

▶ Operating A Small Residential Building

▶ Connect with Perry

https://www.linkedin.com/in/perrytan10/

[email protected]

Description Block 3 – Links & Support

Carry interest: Also called a “promote,” carried interest has been a fundamental part of real estate investment partnerships for decades. Managing partners receive a carried interest, or a share of profits once an asset is sold, in recognition of both the value they bring to the venture and the risks they take. https://www.nmhc.org/advocacy/issue-fact-sheet/carried-interest-fact-sheet/ 

Free cash optionality : The quality of being available to be chosen but not obligatory. https://www.lexico.com/definition/optionality 

Hospitality assets: Hospitality Property means a full service or limited service hotel or resort, a condominium or timeshare hotel or resort, an extended stay property, or a conference center, and other facilities incidental to, or in support of such property https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/hospitality-property 

Cost of borrowing: The concept of a loan is pretty straightforward: first you borrow money, and then you repay it. But the amount that you must repay is more than the amount you borrow. This is due to interest and fees, which is what a lender charges you for the use of its money https://gsmr.org/financial-tips/the-cost-of-borrowing 

Yield/Rental sensitive: In finance, sensitivity is the magnitude of a market instrument’s reaction to changes in underlying factors, most often in terms of its price response to other factors. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sensitivity.asp 

Upward risk: Upside risk measures the extent to which the value of a stock or other investment might go up beyond expected levels. https://capital.com/upside-risk-definition 

Capital appreciation: Capital appreciation is a rise in an investment’s market price. Capital appreciation is the difference between the purchase price and the selling price of an investment. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalappreciation.asp#:~:text=Capital%20appreciation%20is%20a%20rise,earned%20%242%20in%20capital%20appreciation

Urbanization: Urbanization, the process by which large numbers of people become permanently concentrated in relatively small areas, forming cities. https://www.britannica.com/topic/urbanization 

Service apartment: Officially, ‘Serviced Apartment’ is the umbrella term for a type of furnished apartment available for short-term or long-term stays, which provides amenities, housekeeping and a range of services for guests and where most taxes and utilities are included within the rental price. https://theasap.org.uk/non-members-consumers/about-serviced-apartments/what-is-a-serviced-apartment/ 

Investor Relationship: The investor relations (IR) department is a division of a business, usually a public company, whose job it is to provide investors with an accurate account of company affairs. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/investorrelations.asp 

First Cabin: First Cabin is a chain offering compact capsule-style rooms. https://www.insidekyoto.com/first-cabin-kyoto-kawaramachi-sanjo#:~:text=First%20Cabin%20is%20a%20chain,a%20drawer%20under%20the%20bed

Earthquake regulation (Japan): The Building Standards Law was amended in 1981 to introduce new standards for designing buildings for earthquake resistance. This amendment was introduced as a result of the devastating 1978 quake that struck Miyagi. https://resources.realestate.co.jp/buy/earthquake-building-codes-and-technology-in-japan/ 

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Alright, let’s get back to the transcript of the show. Enjoy!

▶ Transcript [English & Chinese]

Darren Wong: Hey, Perry. Welcome to the show.

Perry Tam: Hey, how’s it going?

Darren Wong: Very good, very good. So you know, it’s exciting because I’ve known for two and a half, three years through our mutual friend, Geoff. And then, Japan real estate market is something that a lot of people in Hong Kong, obviously interested. And then your backgrounds are unique because not only that residential, you do hospitality, Airbnb and other real estate type, too. So it’s good to pick your brain today. And just start with, would you mind telling the audience, your background and what you do?

Perry Tam: Yeah, sure. So at the moment, I am at Pegasus Capital, and we invest in Japanese real estate. Prior to that, well, I graduated the University of Chicago, and then basically had a finance track by working in investment banking, and also at a fundamental hedge funds, based in Hong Kong. And from there was a lot of bottom up analysis, looking at balance sheets, meeting management and understanding the investment thesis or what not. And it was around 2016,  that I moved back to my family office. And from there, I continued to make investments in the public market, in the debt space, so on and so forth. And one of  the things that I noticed, or what to find attractive about Japan is that if you buy an asset, and you can get leverage on it, you can actually ride a big carry, what I mean by that is that the returns are much higher than the cost of borrowing. And in finance term, I guess we can call this free cash optionality. And therefore, we just first purchased a building in Tokyo, a residential building. And then from there, we got some bank financing. And the idea is not that noble at the beginning, it was basically to generate free cash flow based on the investments and then maybe use it to buy stocks or whatnot. But one thing led to another, I suppose, and Japan, we’ve come to learn, it’s really, really attractive for an investor, and that rode on and continue to grow. And then now we are managing a fund with both my investor capital, and also LP capital, and we invest in what we have been looking into hospitality assets recently.

Darren Wong: I see, that’s good, because, obviously, I think Japan real estate market has been very attractive since five, six years ago. So would you mind telling the audience what’s going on in the residential market in Japan? And then how’d you get involved? And what is your view of the current stage at the moment?

Perry Tam: Sure, let me take a step back and  highlight what I think is exciting about Japan. Number one is the cost of borrowing is really cheap. So let’s say if the rental returns are 4%, 5%, 6%, the cost of borrowing is only around 1%. So if you can get a decent LTV, then it’s basically free cash. Secondly, the structural directory of Japan, I think, in general, residential has been strong for the last many number of years, hotels until recently is very strong. And obviously you also have the more mainstream asset classes like logistics or office, which are also pretty strong. And one important thing about Japan aside from the low cost of financing is that you get freehold ownership, which means that it protects investors, even for foreign investors. And because Japan as a market is very yield sensitive or rental sensitive. The fact that there is rent toward upward risk of  pressure, it means that the capital appreciation potential is high. So your questions are what residential? Is that right?

Darren Wong: That’s correct.

Perry Tam: Okay, specifically for residential, we own  a property in Tokyo at the moment. One in Shibuya-ku, near Harajuku. And the other one in the Tsukiji area. And Tokyo, surprisingly, has had population increase for the last 30 years. So Japan’s undergoing a really strong urbanisation trend, which means that if you are from the ] village, and you grow up there, the next thing you want to do is probably to work at a Tokyo, work at Nagoya, work at Osaka. These are  places which have experienced population increase over time. And that also explains why in Tokyo, the rooms are so small because it’s so crowded and packed. And because of this shortage of rooms available, it actually has a really high occupancy in Tokyo. And also rent has been increasing. I mean, that includes the assets and the properties that we hope to.

Darren Wong: I see. So how’s the experience from the standard market? And then make it considered hospitality, which is the journey behind that. And what’s your current view on the hospitality market as well at the moment?

Perry Tam: Sure. I think when we first purchase residential, it was more about testing the market with more central locations like Roppongi and maybe in Harajuku. So it was all about location, location, location, and we managed to buy an entire building in Harajuku and we got around a 50 to 60%  LTV at 1% cost of financing which is pretty low. And from there, we just realised that we can enhance the rental return. By back then we were doing Airbnb for some of the apartments and Airbnb is a tourist trend and, and all that. And in 2018, there was more regulation for Airbnb, but you can still operate, we can still rent out these apartments as a  service apartment. So they call it monthly mansions in Japan. So in the case of Japan, any rental which is 30 days or more is not considered a hospitality or hotel accommodation. Likewise, in the case of Hong Kong, that break off point is 28. So what that means is if the normal rents is around, let’s say $100, for simplicity, using round numbers, then you can probably rent it out to the business traveller or somebody that wants to rent the place at around $160 to $200. So that is the markup. And that is the enhancement that you could achieve by operating as an Airbnb or service apartment. So how did they get into hotels? I think while because I’m a public market and hedge fund background before, we managed to talk to  a lot of IRs (investment relationships) or CFOs, and all that from listed charities, so also from budding hotel operators that want to go into Japan, one of which was Ctrip. And we were actually the first tenant, sorry, the owner of one of the hotels that Ctrip was operating in Japan, the subsidiary. And because of that they were able to offer above market rental returns, because they had cost efficiency in operations. And nationally, because of that we invested in a couple of hotels in Osaka, and they were intended. So one thing led to another there.

Darren Wong: I see. And then obviously, we cannot deny the fact that it is another COVID-19 impact. There are a lot of these international things happening, the Rugby World Cup, another big game, and then the potential gambling license, that one (topic) I’ll talk to you more about that. So how has the government helped infrastructure and your view on those events? How much has it helped it? And then do you think that the effect will prolong years even after those events?

Perry Tam: Yeah, I think really depends on the view of everybody about cause is it going to be a five year thing, a 10 year thing or two year thing. I mean, my personal view is COVID is a negative event that affects all industries and most industries. But that said, you still have to look at the mid term to long term outlook of any country or anything that you invest in. So I think, you know, they had just now right, I mean, Japan has a lot of the positive drivers for investment and also for tourism. I talked about two already, which is the low cost of funding, and the ownership of freehold ownership. That’s the two that talked about. And the other things that you talked about is the Rugby World Cup and the Olympics. I mean, with or without the Olympics, with or without the Rugby World Cup, I think it’s fair to say that the Japan government has put in a lot of capital to improve the infrastructure of the country in general. So let’s say should we in Tokyo, you’re seeing a complete redevelopment in places like Yokohama or Osaka, you see a lot of capex to renovate or rejuvenate the city and whatnot. And therefore, even you know, for local places is much better or more attractive than it used to be. And for the Olympics, sorry for the casinos, I think they are talks about Osaka, Yokohama and whatnot. I think that’s gonna be a slightly longer term story. But the story is still intact. What I mean by that is, the government’s going to spend capital there, and the government is going to attract casino operators to come in. And one thing you missed this also the Expo that’s happening in Japan in Osaka. So that’s in between the casinos and after the Olympics. So you have all these drivers in Japan, I mean, where the government’s willing to spend. And if you talk about guests or tourists that are willing to come and travel, I mean, naturally, they’ll do the Thailand, so do the Koreas and whatnot. But then the interest is really firmly in Japan. And there’s so much truth for Japan aside from Tokyo, Osaka, maybe Kyoto, they are quite significant, too.

Darren Wong: Really? Okay. Because there’s something that I felt like Japan have to get ready for a lot of things happening, which comes to something that I always want to ask you even as a friend, is that before the show to talk a little  bit about the hospitality market in Japan, a lot of people want to be part of that. And then how do you suggest them to be an operator or an investor and sometimes what kinds of difficulty is that as the operator and investor that people don’t know about? And then lastly of this whole three part question is that, beside COVID-19 impacts, is it worth investing or being operator in the space?

Perry Tam: Sure. I think the competition has increased over the last couple of years. I mean, if investors or your friends came into Japan and made investments, like five years, six years or seven years ago, then it’s going to be much easier to outperform. But because you’re basically riding the upward wave, right? But nowadays, even without COVID, you can get in more competition,  and you get in more upstarts, right? And the general theme that I see for failures, if I may, are hotels or operating businesses that are undifferentiated in poor locations, and with rooms that are built for the ordinary businessman. There’s zero lack of the zero differentiation. And when, let’s say there’s more competition in the market, these guys are the ones that we’ve wiped out. And we actually see that recently, there’s a hotel operator called WBF that went bankrupt recently. And on the papers is also a brand called First Cabin, who are hostels that do capsule hotels. So naturally, in this case, there is a lack of differentiation and they don’t have a product offering. For the hotels that we are operating or invested in, it’s more differentiated either on the cost side or the design side. On the cost side, for example, we are operating a hotel in Kyoto at the moment, and even at a 20% occupancy, we are profitable, so means that in COVID environment, we have profitable. And the rooms that we have are around  17 to 20 square metres. So that means that is much larger than the average business hotel. So most hotels in Japan are actually really small shoe box for the ordinary person that’s going to travelling between cities to work, that no longer really works. And investing in  those assets are going to be problematic. Lastly, about who to work with or whether to start your own hotel operating company, operating business is a lot of time. So you probably have to be on the ground, or you have to have the right people in the ground, if not I don’t think it’s worth doing. Rather, I think it makes more sense to work with an operator with some sort of track record, or, at the very least some business sense and design in management and also strong with numbers, I think, a lot of operators that I’ve talked to, to my investment and due diligence to only have one, but not all three. And that’s why they fail.

Darren Wong: I see. It sounds like you need a superman to be part of the hotel operator, because it’s something that’s, even myself, I think, with my background before as an asset manager, but I try to manage two hotels, and that is a lot of work. I don’t know how to do it. And obviously we talked about COVID a couple times, that’s something that I want to ask you because that sounds really good, you’re doing everything really well. So during the COVID-19, how the government is helping you guys and then how yourself mitigate the risk during a time like this?

Perry Tam: Sure. So at the moment, we have Airbnb and also hotels and service apartments. And I guess the government has been supportive in terms of having subsidies. You know this better than me, but I think it’s similar to that of Southeast Asia or maybe in the US. So some of these we have a work from home subsidies, IT and telecommunication, tele-working subsidies, and also a COVID loan, a zero interest loan, and they’re going to take it a step further, you can probably borrow around 50 to 80 million of low interest or principal only repayment loans. So the banks have been quite easy, or they have been relaxing their requirements. And so therefore, you can cover staff costs, you can cover equipment costs, and you also can borrow money from the government, or related banks at a very low cost. So that’s why you don’t see that many bankruptcies, I mean, you do in Japan, you do see bankruptcies but it’s not at the level of the US or maybe Europe.

Darren Wong: I see. So, going back to a little bit on Airbnb side, I’m just wondering, because a lot of people like smaller investors are going to consider Airbnb or even smaller one who have a consortium of assets for that, how would you feel about the Airbnb future in Japan? And then what do you think the outlook of it?

Perry Tam: Sure, I think if for small investors, I think there are two ways to look at it and I suggest these two schemes. Number one is to buy a residential building, but make sure that it’s in the right location with the right zoning. And  if that checks all the boxes, it can be actually operated as an airbnb 365 days, or it could be converted into a simple lodging, which effectively is a hotel. Under that scenario, it could be leased out to an operator, or the operator can give you, let’s say, pay a rental which is at or slightly below market, but with the upside option to it. I think that’s the best way to work on, to improve the yield or to improve the investment return for a small, ordinary investor. The second way to do it is to do, let’s say there’s a burden of eight floors, maybe the first floor to the third floor, you do a service apartment or airbnb. By service apartment, I mean, subleasing for 30 days. And then put a top floors, you have the fixed reliable income that you’re renting out to the ordinary Japanese family or salaried person, then that way you have diversification of income and also upside, if the service apartment operator or the Airbnb operator generates extra alpha.

Darren Wong: [00:16:22] I see. So I think you cover a lot of detail that I wasn’t expecting to because it’s just things that no one realises that you have to understand the asset, how you work, the location wise, and then even, like residential building can be worked with different type of asset class if you don’t understand what’s going on. So even when the communication with you I know you know your stuff really well for that reason. For the audience that might want to participate in Japan real estate sector, how would you suggest them to participate, for small investors and large investors? And then one thing I was curious is that a lot of people will think that it’s a bit too late to get into the game at the moment, because Japan before was a huge boom, and then things are still going well, in long term, do you think there’s still potential or is it too late to you?

Perry Tam: I think I’ll answer the first part first. For small investors, I think if they’re buying units or apartments themselves, and they should look at core central locations, don’t just chase yield in the middle of nowhere, because as I said earlier, Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya those places, population has been increasing over the years. So the safe bet is probably going to be in Tokyo. And it’s going to be in the main five wards, which is Chuoward, shipway ward, Shinjuku ward, Minato ward, so on and so forth. Focus on those locations. And don’t buy assets that are older than 1983 because of earthquake regulation, and make sure that you buy freehold land, and freehold property, I should say. And from there, basically, you have two strategies: rented out long term to somebody or you can enhance that return by talking to, let’s say, a hotel operator, service apartment operator or an Airbnb operator, which of course I know people that are doing that. That’s one way to do it. For big guys, I think that, depending on how big, I mean, I think looking at residential, offices,  hotels, I think it’s the same story there. I think those are all attractive assets, if you have a lot of capital and maybe logistics. But I’ll probably stay away from retail at the moment. And it’s a similar story in the US whereby you have to the Amazon risk or the e-commerce risk. And, secondly, the valuations are not that cheap. The second part of your question is what?

Darren Wong: Do you think it’s too late when we have to go in or there’s still a lot potential for the markets?

Perry Tam: I think there’s a lot of potential. I think one important point to highlight in Japan is that most of the capital flow in terms of property transactions are driven by local corporates, and also by pension funds and charities. And they account for around close to 60% of all transactions in Japan. So as a small investor, or a high net worth investor, you don’t really move the needle, because these are the big guys that are buying for stable cash flow reasons or for tax reduction purposes. Therefore, there’s always a pocket to look at in Japan. And they go for us, at least at Pegasus, to sell to one of these guys have to do the value adding. For investors that are looking at Japan early on, then I think it’s important for them to understand that the person that you sold to is probably a Japanese person, not an international investor. And secondly, You also have to consider the Japanese low cost of funding, that’s going to continue for a long time.

Darren Wong: I see, that’s good. I only have one more question. Because there’s something I’m just curious. What are some projects you’re working on and the opportunity you’re looking at the moment?

Perry Tam: Sure, I think, in real estate investment, you can break down your risk and appetite into several buckets, you’ve got the opportunistic bucket, obviously, and then you have the value add, then you have core plus, which is just normal rental, a bit of tweaks, and then you have core investors, that’s just what stable income. In a COVID environment, I think it’s important for us to, if we’re deploying capital in a risky environment, then we should be more opportunistic, very naturally. And in this market, the most opportunistic assets, I think, are going to be hospitality related assets. And that’s what we’ve seen the biggest discounts. At the moment, we are looking at projects, which are probably gonna be discounted by 40, maybe 50%. By sellers across the board, it could be a fund that has reached maturity, it could be a developer that has borrowed too much money, or they need to release capital for the next project, and so on and so forth, guys like that we talked to at the moment. And we believe that buying at around 30, to maybe 50% discount to what it used to be, it’s going to be very attractive, considering what I just said about the future, tourism trend, maybe one year, maybe two years, maybe three years down the line, it’s probably going to recover from what it is now. And if our hotel operating business is still profitable at 20% occupancy, you can assume that if things go back to 50, 60, 70, how much of a margin that we can make, and how much capital gains that we can achieve by buying at this moment right now.

Darren Wong: It’s huge. I mean, 30% holy crap. That’s a huge number. Actually, if you can, you can pull it off. Yeah.

Perry Tam: And I guess I’m talking, I forgot to say, and we are not really looking at in the middle of nowhere, I’m talking about Tokyo, like 100-room hotel in Tokyo, where I’m talking about a 150-room hotel in Kyoto. I’m talking about a development project in the middle of number, right in the middle of Osaka. And these are things that are really exciting and it was something that I had difficulty sourcing or buying like two or three years ago, because nobody is willing to lower their prices until recently.

Darren Wong: I see. But obviously, I think there are so many things that I want to ask. There are so many questions in my head, for example, different asset class, it can be industrial or other property type that you see interesting, or like location, so on. But we will wait for the next time then. And then for people who want to reach out to you and talk to you more about Japanese hotel, Airbnb residential, how would you suggest them to find out you and talk to you more further?

Perry Tam: Yeah, I think they can send me email at [email protected]

Darren Wong: Okay, cool. Well, obviously, I will include everything in the show notes. And then I want to say thank you for your time because  it’s something for myself, I am always being so curious, now a lot of people in Hong Kong or other places will be also appreciate your insight and sharing as well.

Perry Tam:  No, my pleasure, my pleasure. I hope you’re doing well, by the way.

Darren Wong: Hopefully, we’ll see. But thanks for time and see you next time. Thank you.

Perry Tam: Okay. Take care.

Darren Wong: Bye bye.

Darren Wong: 嘿,Perry。歡迎你來到本集節目。

Perry Tam :嘿,你最近怎樣?

Darren Wong: 非常好,非常好。你知道的,這實在令人興奮,因為我們已經認識了兩年半、三年了,通過我們共同的朋友,Geoff。然後顯然日本房地產是一個很多香港人都很感興趣的市場。而且你的背景很獨特,因為不僅是住宅區,你的工作也包含飯店、Airbnb和其他房地產類型等。所以今天我們有很多東西可以跟你討論。首先,你能告訴聽眾你的背景和你的工作嗎?

Perry Tam :是的,當然。所以目前,我在Pegasus Capital工作,我們投資日本的房地產。在此之前,我畢業於芝加哥大學,然後開始在投資銀行和一家總部設在香港的基礎對沖基金工作,基本上建立了金融方面的工作經驗。在那裡我處理很多非常全面的分析,查看資產負債表,會見管理層,瞭解投資主題或其他相關的工作。大約在2016年,我回到了我的家族理財辦公室工作。在那之後,我繼續在市場上投資,投資債券等等。然後其中一件我注意到的事情是,或者說,日本的吸引力在於,如果你購買了一項資產,並且你可以從中獲得貸款融資,你就可以得到很高的回報。事實上,我的意思是,直到回報率遠高於借貸成本。從財務角度來說,我想我們可以稱之為免費現金選擇。因此,我們在東京購買了一棟住宅樓。然後從那裡,我們得到了一些銀行融資。一開始的想法並不那麼成熟,它基本上是通過投資產生自由現金流,然後可能用來購買股票或其他什麼。但經過一段時間後,我假設在日本,我們逐漸瞭解到,它對投資者來說確實非常有吸引力,而且還在繼續增長。現在我們和我的投資者一起管理一個基金資本和有限合夥資本,我們最近一直在研究及投資的飯店資產。

Darren Wong: 我明白了,這很好,因為,很明顯,我認為日本房地產市場從五、六年前就已經非常吸引人了。你介意告訴觀眾日本住宅市場上的狀況嗎?那你是怎麼開始參與住宅市場的?你對現階段的市場狀況有什麼看法?

Perry Tam: 當然,讓我退一步,突出我認為日本令人興奮的地方。第一,借貸成本真的很便宜。假設租金回報率是4%,5%,6%,那麼借款成本只有1%左右。所以如果你能得到一個理想的貸款價值比,那基本上就是免費現金。第二,日本的發展結構,我認為,總體而言,在過去的許多年裏,住宅市場一直很强大,直到最近,酒店市場都非常强大。顯然,你還有更為主流的資產類別,如物流或辦公,它們也相當强大。還有一件關於日本的重要事情除了融資成本低之外,你還可以獲得自由所有權,這意味著它可以保護投資者,甚至是外國投資者。因為由於日本市場對收益率或租金非常敏感。事實上有租金向上的風險壓力,說明資本增值潛力較大。你的問題是關於住宅市場?對嗎?

Darren Wong: 沒錯。

Perry Tam: 好的,特別是住宅,我們擁有東京的一處房產。其中一個在Harajuku附近的Shibuya-ku。另一個在Tsukiji地區。還有東京,令人驚訝的是,在過去的30年裏,人口一直在增長。所以日本正在經歷一個非常快速的城市化趨勢,這意味著如果你來自村莊,你在那裡長大,下一步你想做的事情可能是在東京工作,在名古屋工作,在大阪工作。這些是人口隨時間增長最顯著的地方。這也解釋了為什麼在東京,房間這麼小,因為它是如此擁擠和擁擠。因為缺乏空置的住宅,東京的入住率非常高。而且房租也一直在上漲。而這包括我們希望得到的資產和財產。

Darren Wong: 我明白了。那麼你在標準市場有什麼經驗呢?然後當你處理酒店業的時候,你現時對飯店市場的看法也是如此?

Perry Tam :當然。我認為,當我們第一次購買住宅時,主要目的的是用戶來測試像六本木和原宿這些中央地方的市場。所以一切都是關於市場的位置,位置,和位置,我們設法在原宿買了一整棟樓,我們得到了大約50%到60%的回報貸款價值比為融資成本的1%,這是相當低的。從我們剛剛意識到我們可以提高租金回報率。那時我們正在為一些公寓做Airbnb,那時Airbnb是一種旅遊趨勢。到了2018年,對Airbnb有了更多的規定,但你仍然可以經營,我們仍然可以將這些公寓作為服務式公寓。所以在日本他們稱之為月宅。因此,在日本,任何30天或30天以上的租金不被視為招待或酒店住宿。同樣,就香港而言,這個點是28。所以這意味著如果正常的租金是,為了簡單起見,假設100美元左右,使用整數,那麼您可以將其出租給商務旅行者或想租房子的人在160到200美元之間。這就是標記。這就是你可以通過Airbnb或服務來實現的增强的公寓。那麼他們是怎麼進飯店的?我想,因為我以前是一個公開市場和對沖基金的背景,所以我們設法與很多國稅局或首席財務官聯繫,所有這些都來自上市慈善機構,還有那些希望進入日本的新興飯店運營商,其中之一就是Ctrip。以及我們實際上是第一個承租人,對不起,Sea Trip在日本經營的一家飯店的所有者,即子公司。以及因為他們能够提供高於市場的租金回報,因為他們的運營具有成本效益。我們在全國投資了幾家飯店,特別是在大阪。所以這一切都是經過我們的仔細安排的。

Darren Wong: 我明白了。顯然,我們不能否認這是另一個冠狀病毒的影響。有很多這樣的國際賽事正在發生,橄欖球世界盃,另一場大型比賽,還有潜在的賭博許可證,我會和你們詳細談談。那麼,政府如何幫助基礎設施建設以及您對這些事件的看法?有多大幫助?那麼,你認為這種影響會持續數年嗎?

Perry Tam :是的,我認為真正取決於每個人對於這件事情的看法,是五年的事,還是十年的事,還是兩年的事。我是說,我個人的看法是冠狀病毒是影響所有行業和大多數行業的負面事件。但也就是說,你還是要看中長期的前景任何國家或你投資的任何東西。所以我想,你們知道,他們剛剛有,我的意思是,日本有很多正面的因素推動投資和旅遊業。我已經談到了所有權的低成本。這就是我們談論的兩個。還有其他的事情例如我們剛談論的奧運會和橄欖球世界盃。我的意思是,不管有沒有奧運會,有沒有橄欖球世界盃,我認為公平地說,日本政府在投入大量資金改善國家的基礎設施。如果我們在東京,你會看到一個完整的發展,在橫濱或大阪這樣的地方進行再開發,你會看到很多資本金被用以翻新或振興都市等等。以及因此,即使你知道,因為當地的地方比過去更好或更具吸引力。為了奧運會,而關於賭場,我想他們在談論大阪、橫濱等等。我想這會是一個稍微長一點的故事。但賭場的發展機會依然存在。我的意思是,政府要在那裡投資,政府要吸引賭場經營者進來。還有一件你忘記了的事,是這次日本大阪世博會。所以那是在發展賭場和之後的奧運會之間。所以你在日本有這麼多發展推動力,我是說,政府願意花錢的地方。如果你談到願意來的客人或遊客旅行,我的意思是,自然,他們會去泰國,韓國和其他什麼的。但是旅客對日本的興趣一直都很高,而除了東京之外,大阪,也許京都,它們也很重要。

Darren Wong: 真的嗎?可以。因為我覺得日本必須為很多事情做好準備,這就是我作為朋友也一直想問你的一件事,也就是在節目開始前要說的,關於日本的飯店市場,很多人都想參與其中。那麼你如何建議他們成為一個運營商或投資者,有時又會有怎樣的困難,特別是人們並不知道的,作為經營者和投資者的困難?最後一個部分的問題是,除了冠狀病毒的影響,還是否值得在該領域投資或成為運營商?

Perry Tam :當然。我認為競爭在過去幾年。我是說,如果投資者或你的朋友來日本投資,比如五年、六年或七年以前,那麼要在競爭中獲勝就很容易了。但因為你的資產基本上是在上升,對吧?但是現在,即使沒有冠狀病毒,你也可以,你會有更多的競爭,對吧?如果可以的話,我認為失敗的主要原因是飯店或經營企業,在貧困地區沒有區別,房間是為普通商人建造的。缺乏了零分化。當市場競爭加劇時,這些人就是我們要消滅的。我們真的看到了最近,有一家名為WBF的飯店運營商最近破產了。報紙上還有一個叫First Cabin的企業,他們是做膠囊旅舘的旅舘。所以很自然,在這種情況下,他們缺乏特色,也沒有產品供應。對於那些我們正在運營或投資,無論是在成本方面還是在設計方面都有更大的特色。例如,在成本方面,我們現時在京都經營一家飯店,即使入住率為20%,我們也是有獲利的,這意味著在冠狀病毒的環境影響下,我們也可以盈利。我們的房間就在附近17到20平方米。這意味著它比一般的商務飯店要大得多。所以日本的大多數飯店其實都很小,像為普通人準備的鞋盒,現在已經不起作用了。投資於這些資產會有問題。最後,關於與誰合作或是否成立自己的飯店運營公司,經營業務是一個很長的時間。所以你可能必須在當地上,或者你必須在當地有合適的人,否則我認為這不值得。更確切地說,我認為與有運作經驗的夥伴一起工作更有意義,或者至少在管理方面有一定的商業頭腦和設計,我想,我見過很多運營商對於我的投資和盡職調查,只有一個,但不是全部三個。這就是他們失敗的原因。

Darren Wong: 我明白了。聽起來你需要一個超人加入飯店營運團隊,因為這是一件事,甚至我自己,我想,有我以前的資產管理背景,但我試圖管理兩家飯店,這是一項大量的工作。我不知道怎麼做。很明顯,我們談了幾次有關冠狀病毒的影響,這是我想問你的,因為這聽起來很好,你做的一切都很好。所以在]冠狀病毒的影響下,政府是如何幫助你們的,以及在這樣一個時期你是如何減輕風險的?

Perry Tam :當然。所以現在,我們Airbnb以及飯店和服務公寓。我想政府在補貼方面一直很支持。你比我更瞭解這一點,但我認為這與東南亞或美國的情况類似。所以我們有一些在家工作的補貼,是嗎以及電信、遠程工作補貼,以及COVID貸款,零利率貸款,他們會更進一步,你大概可以借到5000萬到8000萬的低利率僅限利息或本金的償還貸款。所以銀行一直很寬鬆,或者他們已經放寬了他們的要求。因此,你可以支付員工成本、設備成本,還可以從政府或相關銀行以非常低的成本借款。這就是為什麼你看不到那麼多的破產案,我是說,你在日本有,你確實看到過破產案,但並沒有美國或者歐洲的數字。

Darren Wong: 我明白了。回到Airbnb這個話題,因為很多人,例如小規模的投資者,都想考慮一下Airbnb或更小的公司,他們擁有一個資產聯盟,您對Airbnb在日本的未來有何看法?你覺得前景如何?

Perry Tam: 當然,我認為對於小規模投資者,我認為有兩種方法可以考慮,我建議這兩種方案。第一件事是買一棟住宅樓,但要確保它的位置和分區都是正確的。以及如果檢查了所有的條件,它實際上可以365天都作為airbnb 運行,或者可以轉換為一個簡單的住宿,即實際上是一家飯店。在這種情況下,它可以出租給運營商,或者運營商可以給你,比如說,支付處於或略低於市場水准的租金,但有上行選擇。我認為這是最好的方法提高收益率或提高小型普通投資者的投資回報率。第二種方法是做,比方說這裡有八層樓,可能從一樓到三樓,你做的是服務式公寓或airbnb。我指的是服務公寓,轉租30天。再加上頂層的單位,你就有了固定可靠的收入,你就可以出租給普通人、日本家庭或工薪階層,那麼這樣你就有了收入的多樣化,也有了上行空間,如果服務式公寓運營商或Airbnb生成額外的收入。

Darren Wong: 我明白了。所以我覺得你講了很多我沒想到的細節,因為這只是一些沒人能想到的事情意識到,你必須瞭解資產,你如何工作,位置,然後,甚至,像住宅樓宇,可以使用不同類型的資產類別,如果你不瞭解發生了什麼。所以即使和你交流的時候,我知道你對自己的東西非常瞭解。對於希望參與日本房地產行業的觀眾,對於小投資者和大投資者,您如何建議他們參與?我很好奇很多人會認為現在進入市場有點晚了,因為日本市場以前是十分繁榮,然後事情仍然很順利,從長遠來看,你認為市場仍然擁有潜力還是太遲了?

Perry Tam: 我想我先回答第一部分。對於小規模投資者,我認為如果他們購買單位或公寓本身,他們應該關注中心位置,而不是僅僅在偏僻的地方追求收益,因為正如我前面所說,東京、大阪、名古屋這些地方,人口逐年增加。所以安全的賭注可能在東京。而且可以專注在在五個主要的區域,分別是Chuo區、Shibuya區、Shinjuku區、 Minato區等等。集中在那些地方。要購買1983年以前的資產,因為地震法規的原因,並且確保你購買了,我想說的是,永久擁有的土地和房產。從這裡,基本上,你有兩個策略:長期租給別人或你可以通過與飯店運營商、服務公寓運營商或Airbnb運營商(我當然認識這樣的人)交談來提高回報。那是一種方法。對於大型的投資,我認為,取決於多大,我的意思是,我想看看住宅,辦公室,飯店,我想也是這樣。我認為這些都是有吸引力的資產,如果你有大量的資金和物流。但我現在可能會遠離零售業。在美國也有類似的情况,你要承擔亞馬遜風險或電子商務風險。其次,估值也不那麼便宜。你問題的第二部分是什麼?

Darren Wong:你認為我們必須進入的時候已經太遲了還是市場還有很大的潜力?

Perry Tam :我認為有巨大的潜力。我認為在日本需要強調的一點是,在房地產交易方面,大部分資本流動都是由當地企業推動的,還有養老基金和慈善機構。占日本全部交易的60%左右。所以作為一個小投資者,或者是高淨值投資者,你不會真的動用很多資金的,因為這些大公司是為了穩定的現金流或減稅目的。因此,在日本總有投資的機會可以考慮。他們會來找我們,至少在Pegasus,要賣給這些人中的一個,就必須新增價值。對於關注日本的投資者來說那麼,我認為,讓他們明白,你賣給的人可能是日本人,而不是國際投資者,這一點很重要。以及其次,你還必須考慮到日本的低融資成本,這將持續很長一段時間。

Darren Wong: 我明白了,這很好。我還有一個問題。因為有些事我只是好奇。你在做什麼項目?你目前正在尋找怎樣的機會?

Perry Tam :當然,我想,在房地產投資方面,你可以把你的風險和目標分成幾個部分,很明顯,你有機會投資,然後你就有了增值,然後你就有了收益,這就是只要正常的租金,稍微調整一下,然後你就有了核心投資者,這就是穩定的收入。在冠狀病毒的環境下,我認為我們應該,如果我們在高風險環境中投入資本,那麼我們自然應該更加把握機會。在這個市場上,我認為最能把握機會的資產,將成為飯店相關資產。這就是我們看到的最大折扣。現時,我們正在研究的項目打40折,或者50%。可能是一個開發商借的,可能已經借了太多錢了,或者他們需要為下一個項目釋放資金,等等,諸如此類的傢伙,我們現在談過了。我們相信考慮到我剛才所說的未來,以30%左右的價格購買,可能會比以前有50%的折扣,這將是非常有吸引力的,旅遊業的趨勢,也許一年,也許兩年,也許三年以後,它可能會從現在的狀況中恢復過來。如果我們的飯店運營業務在入住率為20%的情况下仍然盈利,你可以假設,如果情况回到50、60、70%,那麼我們現在可以通過購買來獲得多少資本收益。

Darren Wong: 這太大了。我是說,30%的天啊。這是一個巨大的數位。事實上,如果你能做到的話,你可以做到。是啊。

Perry Tam :我想我在說的是,我忘了說,我們並不是在看偏僻的地方,我說的是東京,比如說東京的100個房間的飯店,我說的是京都的一個有150個房間的飯店。我說的是一個開發專案在中間,正好在大阪的中間。這些都是非常令人興奮的事情,這是我在採購上遇到的困難,像兩三年前一樣,因為直到最近才有人願意降價。

Darren Wong: 我明白了。但顯然,我想我有很多事情想問。我腦子裏有很多問題,比如,不同的資產類別,可以是工業的,也可以是其他的您看到的有趣的或類似位置的產業類型,等等。但我們將等待下一次。還有那些想和你接觸更多,討論關於日式飯店,Airbnb 住宅的人,您會如何建議他們找到您並與您進一步交談?

Perry Tam: 是的,我想他們可以給我發電子郵件到[email protected]

Darren Wong:好的,酷。嗯,顯然我會把所有的東西都寫在節目筆記裏。然後我想說謝謝你抽出時間,因為這對我也很有幫助,我一直很好奇,現在香港或其他地方的很多人也會很欣賞你的見識和分享。

Perry Tam :不,這是我的榮幸,我的榮幸。我也希望你最近過得不錯。

Darren Wong: 希望我們能再見到你。謝謝你的時間,下次見。謝謝您。

Perry Tam :好的。保重。Darren Wong: 再見。

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